I recently finished reading this book. The book was written based upon a large amount of research the author had conducted on a certain segment of our society. It was meant to find out the reasons these people are what they were, and how they got there. I hesitate to name the author, or the topic of study, so as not to incriminate him or his work, but it was interesting the conclusions he had come to, based upon his research.
As I was reading through this book, I found myself thinking about the conclusions this author had drawn—examining them in my mind. I found that, much of the time, and in my honest opinion, his conclusions were flawed. It amounted to me sitting there with a grimace on my face, and a figurative shaking of my head in disagreement. I know this begs the question, and you might be asking, ‘Then why did you even read it”? Well, that’s a legitimate question. I guess my answer is kind of complicated. If I were to be honest, I’m something of a contrarian thinker by nature. I like to examine thoughts and see if they mesh with reality. Now, I don’t do that at the expense of the facts, but I do tend to do that. You might think I’m something of a ‘logic snob’. OK, I guess I’m guilty. But even more than that, there’s something that bothers me about people who present ideas as novel conclusions when they’re not even that novel, and worse—they’re just plain wrong. And I think they need to be called on it, but often aren’t. On the upside, there were some entertaining aspects of the book, so I guess that’s why I kept reading.
But, regardless, this also brought up another question in my mind: How often does someone have all the facts in front of them, but they still come to the wrong conclusions? All the facts can be accurate and true, but they still incorrectly discern the facts on the subject. This can easily happen if one’s not careful. For instance, there’s a logical fallacy known as ‘post hoc ergo propter hoc’. It’s Latin, and what it literally means is ‘after this, therefore because of this’. It’s saying that because one event happened after another event that the former even must be the cause. Of course, we all know that isn’t always the case. Some things happen in sequence with other events, but that doesn’t necessarily mean that they have anything to do with the other. A young kid could come to the false conclusion that his Dad impacts the setting of the sun. This is all based on his observation that the sun always goes down right after his Dad comes home from work and shuts the garage door. He thinks, “Well, the sun always sets after Dad comes home. Dad must cause the setting of the sun. Case closed.” Well, not so fast, junior. You might be surprised to learn that one thing has nothing to do with the other.
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Of course we can forgive this youngster for coming to the wrong conclusions on something like this, for many reasons. One, being that he is too young to know better. The other, of course, is the elevated status of his Father in his mind. But one wonders how often we come to the same kinds of wrong conclusions. And, as adults, what’s our excuse? We should be above this kind of thinking, but sometimes aren’t. Maybe we need to take a closer look. Maybe we need to re-examine the data.