The ability to come the right conclusions depends on our ability to collect the right data. Something that gets lost in our pursuit of truth is the discovery of all the little truths that will lead us to the final conclusion. We want to arrive at the conclusion without bothering to take the journey to get there. And, inevitably, what ends up happening is we sacrifice the truth for a conclusion that fits our narrative.
Arthur Conan Doyle’s character, Sherlock Holmes had a famous quote: “I never guess. It is a capital mistake to theorize before one has data. Insensibly one begins to twist facts to suit theories, instead of theories to suit facts.” Although this is a statement made by a fictional character, and written by an author who lived over 100 years ago, it’s one that bears an undeniable element of truth. We do often come up with false conclusions simply because we have predetermined the outcome. This is through either inherent bias or just flawed thinking.
When we have a predetermined bias in one direction, it inevitably compels us to want to steer the evidence in the direction of that bias. We are then satisfied to come to a conclusion that appears right to us while it lies in direct contradiction to the facts. We gain too much satisfaction from arriving at a false conclusion as long as the conclusion is one that we like. We too easily claim victory for crossing the finish line without going to the work of getting there.
Of course, then we also do this through a number of logical fallacies. We can conclude that because things are sometimes true that they are always true. We can conclude that because one event followed another event that the previous event was the cause. We can conclude that because things are true in part that they are true on the whole. But these things are just as bad as having a predetermined bias, and will just as easily lead us to the wrong conclusions.
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Sometimes we feel free to make judgements of others as though we had perfect knowledge of their situation. But I would estimate that is rarely, if ever, the case. To think of how easily we judge other people in light of the limited knowledge we have of them is pretty astonishing. It would be laughable if it weren’t also so tragic. Even if we spent 24 hours a day with someone their entire lives, we still wouldn’t have perfect knowledge of their situation. We still wouldn’t understand their thinking or their heart. In these cases, it appears we are prone to both predetermined bias and logical fallacy.
Invariably, this happens with our judgments of others, but almost certainly this happens in our pursuit about the meaning of life. Those existential questions that plague every human being are maybe the most prone to our false conclusions and also have the biggest implications. The truth won’t generally just fall in our laps. It’s usually something we have to search out. And the place we start can make all the difference. It’s important that we don’t make assumptions. It’s important that we allow the evidence to lead us where it will, regardless of whether we like it or not. It’s also important that we recognize our limits in understanding everything. So, to start the journey we have to start with the right question. We start out the journey by asking ourselves, “What do I know to be true?”