Risk analysis

Taking risks is a part of life. There’s no escaping it. It’s how we approach those risks and how we take them that’s in question. Life isn’t about risk avoidance, but about risk management. Knowing when to move forward with confidence after a thorough examination of the facts is what it’s all about. No one can know everything; they can only gather as much data as they can, analyze it the best they can, and move forward based on that. That’s where risk analysis becomes so important.

Managing risk is the main job of an actuarial at any insurance company. They pore through statistics and tables to find out whether they can handle the odds of something happening to a select group of people over time. Sounds a bit like gambling, doesn’t it? Well, it’s not, even though it bears a slight resemblance to it. Gambling is throwing money at an opportunity without knowing the risks; risk analysis is throwing money at an opportunity because you do know the risks. But because your insurance company doesn’t know the future, they have to figure what the probabilities are for certain scenarios. They don’t know the exact numbers, but they can make an educated guess by looking back at historical data. They can also make fairly accurate guesses based on statistical data. These things work together to provide some metric for predicting the future. They even go into this knowing they will be off on the numbers. They always will be. But what they also know is that they can spread a substantial amount of risk over a large population of people. That’s where paying our monthly premiums comes in. We pay our car insurance premiums every month for this reason. Even though I may never have an insurance claim during the term of my insurance contract, other people will. And, as it turns out, this risk management works both ways. Those premiums aren’t just managing risk for the insurance company, they’re managing risk for me as well. I may never have a claim, but if I do I know I’ll be covered.
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As interesting as it is to talk about insurance (ha-ha), this does have some application to our daily lives. We learn, in similar manner, how to do risk analysis on a daily basis, albeit in a bit less technical form. We look at the factors at play in any situation and come to our best guess based on that. Nothing’s perfect in this life, least of all our decisions we make. We can’t eliminate risk entirely; we can only manage it. It’s tempting to just side-step risk by not taking any. But life is full of opportunities. If we don’t analyze the risks we face, we’ll never capitalize on any opportunities. It’s not a matter of throwing caution to the wind, either. That would be gambling. It’s reading the terrain. Risk analysis is really just using wisdom on a continual basis.

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